Micron versus Sandisk

  • Micron wins on both growth and power.
  • Micron has larger scale and is more capital intensive (greenfield capacity versus nodal transition at Sandisk).
  • Micron owns HBM4, the only memory product that escapes commodity price and tightens the base market.
  • Segment: Micron has larger data center exposure.
  • Micron has the harder paper and the bigger backstop. Micron's contracts carry no walk-away clause.
  • Supply resilience: Sandisk gets 100% of its wafers from a joint venture it owns 49.9% of, cannot direct, cannot leave, must half-fund whether or not it takes the output, and which expires on 31 December 2034.
  • Geography: Micron has much larger U.S. shares of supply origin and demand. Sandisk has much larger China demand exposure and Japan supply exposure.
  • Downside risk: Sandisk breaks first, Micron breaks worse.
  • What to watch:
    • Micron's 2027-2028 capex lands in surplus.
    • High Bandwidth Flash converts, and NAND starts substituting for DRAM at the margin.
    • Change of control at Kioxia.
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