Investing Ideas
- AI analog chips 2026-10-13
- AI cybersecurity demand 2026-10-12
- AI investment themes 2026-08
- Expect investor stress under funding pressure -> opportunities to buy the dip.
- The shifting bottlenecks: power & data centers in 2024, silicon fab capacity (GPUs, CPUs and memory) in 2025, capital in 2026-2027?
- Model capability: The RL-model flywheel. RSI. Data is moat. Compute / inference speed determines speed of model evolution.
- AI benefits hyperscalers by driving up non-AI compute and cloud migration. cf
- 美国将继续领先中国。私人资本活跃、创新和竞争（产权保障）
- Expect investor stress under funding pressure -> opportunities to buy the dip.
- AI变革期的五类公司：新赢家、赋能者、使用者、免疫者、被颠覆者
- 当下AI发展处在S曲线左侧 2026-06
- 产能落后于需求，算力和能源的瓶颈 -> 瓶颈是价值聚集的地方
- 能力还在快速发展 (模型和产品能力) -> 产品性能为王
- 研发和边际成本巨大 -> 利好高现金流、商业模式清晰的incumbents，不利于小公司
- IO 2026.05.15
- Long Critical Metals 2026.04
- Long China Equity 2025.10
