S&P Global
Thesis
SPGI vs MCO
- S&P's main challenge: AI eats its software, which is also lower growth and lower margin.
- Moody's grows a little faster, S&P keeps a little more of each dollar.
- S&P is the fortress with a slower data arm; Moody's is the more levered ratings compounder with a faster-growth but thinner-margin analytics arm.
- Moody's is more exposed to the issuance cycle. S&P is more diversified an more exposed to an equity bear market.
- S&P has converted more of its ratings pricing into annuity fees.
- AI workflow threaten stand-alone platforms first, which is S&P's slow-growing Capital IQ-type estate more than Moody's workflow-embedded KYC and insurance software.
- S&P's balance sheet is more stretched.
